Aug 5, 2021

  • Matthew BerryESPN Senior Writer

    Shut

      • Senior Fantasy analyst for ESPN
      • Member, FSWA and FSTA Halls of Fame
      • Best-selling author of "Fantasy Life"

As you go gear up for fantasy football 2021, exist sure to get plenty of practice by using our Mock Typhoon Vestibule.

In 1989, Stephen Covey, an educator, published a volume titled "The 7 Habits of Highly Effective People." It ended up selling more than xxx million copies, became the showtime nonfiction audiobook in U.S. publishing history to sell more than 1 million copies and is quoted and referenced often to this 24-hour interval.

V years earlier that, a very young Matthew Berry had his very commencement fantasy football game typhoon. And on that twenty-four hour period, my very first commissioner, Don Smith, shook my hand and said, "Welcome to draft day. It's only the all-time mean solar day of the year."

Which, as I have found out over the past 37 years, is a 100% true statement. The other thing I learned is that, in addition to being the best twenty-four hours of the year, it's also the most important. Having a strong typhoon is crucial to having a successful fantasy flavor.

Since that first draft, I have participated in literally thousands of drafts for multiple sports for virtually four decades. Some slap-up, some non so smashing, but I learned from every single i of them.

And as I accomplish back to study, clarify and glean from all of them, I thought I should also await back to 1989. So, with apologies to Mr. Covey, I tin tell you ... THESE are the seven habits of highly constructive drafters.

Addiction ane: They spend a ton of time of preparing

But because information technology seems obvious doesn't mean information technology's not true. Draft day mirrors many aspects of life, only perhaps none more this: What you put into information technology is what yous exit of it. Then you demand to prep, just before y'all prep, you need to know exactly what you are prepping for.

And that starts with studying the rules and, more importantly, figuring out the best ways to exploit said rules. What's the scoring? Because that obviously will impact the type of role player you target. Is it half-betoken PPR or full PPR? Because last season in full PPR, eight of the top 10 RBs in points per game saw at to the lowest degree 25% of their fantasy points come from receiving. Is there premium scoring for tight ends? Points for starting time downs? For long punts? Don't laugh. I played in a punter league one time. And crushed information technology similar a grape, thank you very much.

What's your roster size? How exercise you lot learn free-agent players in your league? If information technology's a complimentary-agent budget, y'all tin be a bit riskier on typhoon day because you lot will have a shot at every actor if you need to replace someone. But if it's a waiver system, information technology will be tougher to become the hot free agents, specially if the rules allow someone to sit on the top pick for multiple weeks. So yous'll need to focus a petty more on depth during the draft. Does your league take an IR spot? If and so, how many? Being able to use IR spots allows you to take more than chances on talented only injury-decumbent players.

All of these questions lead to roster construction, which will be a primal part of your draft-24-hour interval success. Reconciling how players are acquired during the flavour with size of roster and roster restrictions you may have (a limit on number of RBs, for case) will assist you lot equally you start to evaluate players. Can you lot fairly easily find solid production at various positions during the year? If then, y'all can roster more than "fliers." In deeper leagues, where the gratuitous-agent pool is scarce, you'll need some solid middle-of-the-road types to plug in.

When do your playoffs start? How many teams make it? With an 18-week season, this will change for many leagues this year, and a lot of leagues will switch upward when their playoffs first and potentially how many teams make it.

Effective drafters also business relationship for what platform they are playing on. While we promise you lot and your league are playing on ESPN and the ESPN Fantasy App, the truth is that wherever you play, the typhoon is highly influenced past the default rankings in the typhoon room. People panic during a typhoon and often take the highest-ranked thespian bachelor. Having a set of rankings you trust and believe in and comparing them to the default ranks of whatever site you play on will aid y'all identify which players are going too early on, which players are going also low, what marketplace inefficiencies at that place are and how you can exploit them.

And if it'south a league where you know the other players, you can add in notations about the tendencies of other drafters. (This one always reaches for young, buzzy players, this other one stockpiles tight ends, etc.)

Finally, mock draft as much every bit possible, especially once you know what spot y'all are picking at. As many as y'all tin can. What happens if yous become with Travis Kelce in the first round? What well-nigh a modified "Nil RB" arroyo or going RB heavy? What if you draft Patrick Mahomes early? Or are the last one in the league with a QB? The more options you play with to see how your team turns out, the more than prepared you will be when the existent draft happens, and you'll be much more comfy adjusting on the fly.

Habit 2: They identify the relative depth at every position

It isn't enough to just have an stance on every potential player. You need to sympathise every actor's value relative to every other player and the depth of that position every bit it relates to your roster needs. QB is deep, you say? Not if you play in a fourteen-team superflex league. Then they outset going quickly.

When you lot draft, yous're not merely collecting as many good players as possible. You're constructing a roster with finite resource. Y'all have simply and then many spots, and you need to also sympathise how easy or hard information technology will be to supercede players during the flavour.

Here's a quick overview of how I encounter the positions this year:

Quarterback is once again very deep, but the fundamental here is that you are going to want to get a QB who adds value with his legs. Last flavour, eight of the top 10 QBs had at to the lowest degree 200 yards rushing. Seven of them had at least xv% of their fantasy points from rushing. Think about the QBs in recent years who have "popped" as elite fantasy options: Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, Kyler Murray and fifty-fifty Justin Herbert (234 yards rushing, five rushing TDs in 15 games last season) all take an actress dimension to their fantasy value.

Running dorsum gets dicey the deeper you become into the typhoon. We prefer running backs to wide receivers at the acme of the rankings this year because of the depth at the WR position. What do we mean by depth, you ask?

Here's how the running back and wide receiver scoring leaders in 2020 lined up:

Wait at that dip from RB5 to RB10 compared to that of WR5 to WR10. Gets pretty pregnant, right? Simply I hear ya. A ane-twelvemonth sample doesn't mean much, right? Simply this 2020 trend lines upwardly with the previous decade.

For the 2010s, the driblet-off in full points from RB5 to RB10 was xviii.four%, while the driblet-off from WR5 to WR10 was 12%. That deviation is significant as yous wait to decide which position to target with your first choice.

As running backs have remained scarce, wide receiver has gotten deeper. What practice nosotros mean by that? The supply of players who score 180-plus points -- ameliorate than 11 points per game -- is increasing, only unless your league has added a roster slot, the demand has not.

In the same iii seasons, WR2s (the players drafted on boilerplate every bit the 11th to 20th receivers off the board) tend to be safer picks and exceed their value more oftentimes than RB2s. For example, from 2018 to 2020 ...

  • 18 of 30 WRs drafted in the WR11-twenty range returned WR2 value (60%), and nine of the 30 returned WR1 value (30%)

  • 14 of 30 RBs drafted in the RB11-20 range returned RB2 value (47%), and half dozen of 30 returned RB1 value (20%)

In each of the past three seasons, threescore% of the receivers drafted in the WR2 range returned WR2 value. Conversely, for running backs, that rate has not been higher than 50% in any of those seasons. Meanwhile, you lot were 50% more likely to detect a breakout WR1 in the WR2 pool than you were to find an RB1 in the RB2 pool. Information technology's a consistent edge. You're ameliorate off picking an RB1 and then adding some WR2 types than you lot are picking the top receiver and trying to cobble your running game from RB2 types, which is all that will be left if you pass on running backs in the outset round.

As for tight stop, I either want to exist early on or really belatedly. Look at this:

Since 2017, the average difference in PPG from TE1 to TE4 has been 4.9 points. From TE4 to TE15, it'southward 4.3. That means there'south an reward to getting one of the top four guys, but not nearly as much of one getting i of the remaining top 10 guys. And so this year, I want Travis Kelce, Darren Waller or George Kittle. And if you want to dip into the Kyle Pitts/T.J. Hockenson/Mark Andrews/Logan Thomas puddle because you believe strongly in 1 of them, I can live with it. Otherwise, I want to wait to be one of the terminal in my league to grab a tight end and try to notice this yr's Logan Thomas or Robert Tonyan. Some candidates? Irv Smith Jr., Adam Trautman, Cole Kmet, Anthony Firkser, Gerald Everett and Hayden Hurst. I also think Austin Hooper volition take a much amend season than folks call back.

Addiction 3: They abide past the one large undercover of fantasy football

At a fundamental level, fantasy football is entirely about minimizing risk and giving yourself the best odds to win on a weekly basis. That's it. That uncomplicated. From the fourth dimension yous read this commodity until the end of your season, every single thing you lot practice needs to lead back to that very simple but rarely followed arroyo.

Every draft choice, waiver move, potential merchandise, start/sit decision and and then on. Everything. I can't predict the hereafter. Neither tin can you. Neither tin anyone else. So all you tin do is minimize run a risk, give yourself the best odds to succeed every calendar week, make the best call you tin in the moment and let the chips fall where they may.

There's but i QB who has thrown for 30 TDs in each of the past 2 seasons. It'southward Russell Wilson, and he'due south washed it in four straight. What's almost likely to happen?

The merely ii teams in the NFL to exist top 10 in pass percentage in each of the past 4 seasons are the Chiefs and Buccaneers. With most or all offensive starters back from a year agone, what'southward most likely to happen for Patrick Mahomes and Tom Brady?

Robert Tonyan had eleven touchdowns last flavor. In the by 15 years, there have been only three tight ends to score that many in sequent seasons (Rob Gronkowski, Jimmy Graham, Julius Thomas). Tonyan did it on just 52 receptions. The last NFL player to catch double-digit touchdowns on fewer than 60 receptions was Falcons WR Michael Haynes in 1991-92. What's most likely to happen?

Now, most likely to happen doesn't mean it will happen. Information technology just means it's much more likely to happen than not. And that's all we can ask for. If yous consistently play the odds, yous'll win a lot more than you won't. And when you are evaluating players before and during the draft, when you are building your team, that's what you need to do. Merely call up once again: At a fundamental level, fantasy football is entirely about minimizing take a chance and giving yourself the best odds to win on a weekly footing. So always ask yourself ... what's about probable to happen?

Habit iv: They use rankings flexibly and in context

Whether they are your own, someone else's, an average of multiple people or even simply the default ones in the draft room, when you draft you are going to have a set of rankings. They are certainly helpful, but they should be used only as a guideline, and more so in the early parts of the typhoon. One time you get your showtime v players, it really becomes about roster construction based on what positions you need to make full, how much risk you've already taken and how the draft is playing out, taking into business relationship all the factors we've already discussed.

I say this speaking equally someone who spends an inordinate amount of time on his rankings, but no list is going to blast stop-of-flavor value, especially if y'all consider weekly variance.

Take Seattle WRs Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf last season. Metcalf finished as the WR7, Lockett as the WR8, separated by only 5.9 full fantasy points. So it doesn't matter which 1 you got, correct? Well, allow's have a closer wait at how their seasons broke downwards:

Metcalf: eight games with 18+ points (50%), 11 games with 12+ points (69%), 3 games below ix points (nineteen%)

Lockett: 5 games with 18+ points (31%), vii games with 12+ points (44%), seven games below 9 points (44%)

Metcalf had more games with at to the lowest degree eighteen points than Lockett had games with at to the lowest degree 12 points. In addition, Lockett was just as likely to score 12-plus points as he was to score fewer than nine. Lockett was much more volatile on a week-to-week footing than Metcalf last flavor, as a whopping 46%(!) of Lockett'southward total fantasy points came in simply three games. Sure he won you those three weeks, merely in that location were seven weeks where Lockett really underperformed. Then fifty-fifty though the rankings on those guys were "accurate" and they finished right next to each other in terms of finish-of-season rankings, over the course of last season Metcalf was a far more valuable fantasy player given his consistency, and it wasn't peculiarly close.

This seems obvious, but the reason sure players go early on in drafts is because of their likely guaranteed production. Almost any NFL role player, in the right game situation, on the correct team, with the right amount of usage, can have a monster fantasy game. But nosotros desire to KNOW they will have that product every calendar week. Or, at to the lowest degree, are much more likely to have it than not.

Players like that are scarce, which is why they become early in drafts, but understand the difference betwixt players who are ranked high because of consistency and players ranked high (at to the lowest degree by some) because of perceived upside. For me, early in drafts, I desire as much rock-solid production as I can guarantee. Besides many people chase upside early on in drafts. I really want a high floor.

Call up almost Nick Chubb entering terminal season. Not sexy, non heavily involved in the passing game, has to worry about Kareem Chase. On the other hand, he had a great offensive line, run-oriented playcaller and had produced the twelvemonth before when Hunt played the final viii games. So ... Nick Chubb every bit a starter:

2018 Week 7 on (postal service Carlos Hyde trade): RB15 in PPG
2019: RB11 in PPG
2020: RB7 in PPG

The lowest Chubb has finished on a per-game ground since taking over as the starter in Cleveland is RB15. During those three seasons, Chubb is averaging nineteen.iv touches per game and has at to the lowest degree 16 touches in 32 of 38 games (84%). Chubb is never a sexy pick because information technology'southward unlikely he ever delivers a top-v RB flavour given his function and team context, merely his flooring shouldn't exist ignored, either. Like last season when Kenyan Drake and Miles Sanders -- who were much riskier picks with small samples of elite production -- were routinely drafted ahead of Chubb in hopes they would produce a total flavour we had yet to see from either player.

Habit v: They focus on winning weeks

Information technology'southward very simple, only then many people forget that fantasy football is a weekly game. Using the instance to a higher place, they see Metcalf and Lockett were both top-eight WRs in 2020, so they are fine drafting either. Which is a mistake considering, as we mentioned, nigh half of Lockett'southward production came from 3 games. Yeah, yous may say, at least you won those iii games.

That's IF y'all started him. Large if. Consider his iii weeks prior to that 53-betoken game at Arizona in Calendar week 7. He had a farewell week in Calendar week 4, followed past 4 catches for 44 yards, and 2 catches for 39 yards. No scores since Week 3. He was averaging fewer than 5 targets per game in that short span heading into that Week 7 game. I'm guessing most started him, just I bet some did non.

And that's the crucial part. It's non enough to take players who score a lot. It's important to know WHEN to start them.

Starting your Nick Chubbs of the world is piece of cake. In theory, your first five picks should all exist Nick Chubbs -- the players yous will start every calendar week barring injury or a bye (and I'k bold you're not taking a QB with whatsoever of your commencement five picks).

Merely what about the residuum of your lineup? Once I become to the middle of my drafts, I no longer seek players who are consistent loftier-floor performers. Because they're all gone. Now, I want players who could current of air upwardly as an elite option at a position in any given calendar week, and that I feel I'll have a chance to come across information technology coming.

I call this the "Never James White" Dominion.

James White is a solid enough fantasy football thespian. He underperformed last flavour, along with the residual of the Patriots' offense. But over the past ii seasons, White ranks as RB21 in total points and RB22 in PPG amidst RBs who appeared in at to the lowest degree 24 games over that stretch. Pretty safe, merely on the exterior border of RB2 territory. Yet, in that span White has only one -- i! -- game with at least 16.5 fantasy points.

Meanwhile, 65 RBs have multiple games with at least 16.5 fantasy points during that stretch, including Jamaal Williams (six), Jeff Wilson Jr. (four), Giovani Bernard (iv), Tony Pollard (iv), Latavius Murray (four), Boston Scott (3) and DeAndre Washington (three).

This is why I say rankings are just a loose guideline and in many ways their accuracy in the context of a full season doesn't affair on a calendar week-to-week ground. To give a "player yous typhoon in later rounds" example instead of the Metcalf/Lockett one, consider Nyheim Hines and Jamaal Williams. Last flavour, on a points-per-game basis, Hines finished as RB25. Meanwhile, Williams was RB34. But while Hines had a few large games, at that place was no rhyme or reason to them. The week later his huge 27.iii-indicate game, he had 1.4 points. Whereas with Williams you knew EXACTLY when those big games were coming. When Aaron Jones was out in Weeks seven and 8. Williams scored 21.4 and xviii.ii points, respectively. In the two games Alvin Kamara missed in 2019, Latavius Murray averaged 34.4 PPG and 31 touches per game. And you lot knew to start Murray.

As you are filling out your bench, you lot demand to view it in the context of the quality of players available on the waiver wire. Now, don't go wild. Drafting a high number of these boom-or-bust players makes sense simply if y'all know you lot tin hands find feasible product on the waiver wire during cheerio weeks or in case of injury. But the positive is that it won't toll much draft-day capital for these upside types. They generally volition exist ranked much lower in pre-draft flavour-long rankings than they will be ranked in the weeks when you know you lot'll need to apply them. That's why in that location'southward no need for guys like White -- who has no path to an aristocracy part and whom you'll never feel great about starting -- when Tony Pollard comes cheaper despite being an Ezekiel Elliott hammy injury away from existence pinnacle five.

Habit half dozen: They are adaptable and trust themselves above all others

Apparently, you should exist watching, reading, listening to as much every bit possible before you typhoon, and that means all summer. Hey, there'southward no offseason! This will help you accept an opinion on every player. You don't demand to memorize every stat or pause down every play, but just have a full general sense of whether you lot are "pro" or "con" the player and what general value y'all give him. Considering, equally Mike Tyson likes to say, "Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth."

The point is, you never know what to look during a typhoon. In that location tin can be extreme runs and at that place can be drafters who take wildly unlike values than you, so players you didn't expect to be available are there for the taking. And there may be someone drafting in front of you using your exact rankings they printed from ESPN.com and laughing every bit they draft the player you want while commenting, "Hahaha do you lot Honey this selection, Berry?!"

That concluding one may be specific to only me.

Merely highly effective drafters are the ones who don't enter with a specific hard-and-fast strategy. By doing the piece of work and beingness prepared, by mock drafting like information technology'due south your chore, by being flexible, you'll be able to conform on the fly and yous won't permit your draft be dictated by anyone or anything but y'all.

Habit vii: They approach the draft as only the commencement step toward success

But considering draft day is the most important day, that doesn't mean it's the but important day. You don't have to win the league during your typhoon. In fact, it's unlikely that yous will. If your fantasy football flavor is a edifice under structure, then the draft is the foundation. If there's a run on quarterbacks, instead of forcing it and reaching early on for a guy in the tier below, take hold of some other running back. Give yourself some surplus so yous have something to trade. Trust me, some other lower-tier quarterback will notwithstanding exist there next circular.

And this goes with what I was talking almost in terms of not sweating rankings or ADP as well much and going for upside, because you're likely dropping some of these guys on the way to glory anyway. Last twelvemonth, six of the 12 players rostered on the most ESPN playoff teams were waiver-wire pickups, led by James Robinson and Justin Herbert, with a lot of Myles Gaskin, Chase Claypool and Mike Davis sprinkled in there. In fact, only two of the tiptop 10 most mutual players on ESPN champions were drafted in the commencement five rounds (Alvin Kamara and Davante Adams). Happens every year.

Your fantasy flavor will be a constant work in progress, so understand that as you construct your team on draft day it's not just well-nigh acquiring players in the draft, and after via free bureau and merchandise, but ultimately how you utilise them. In-season roster decision-making will be crucial for you to go that championship. But that's a story for "The 7 Habits of Highly Effective In-Season Managers."

A version of this cavalcade was published in the ESPN Fantasy Football magazine, on sale right now.